FTSE holding below 6115 targets 6090 then first support at 6070/65

Daily Forecast - 09 March 2016

Eurostoxx March contract

EuroStoxx holding below 3030 again today re-targets first support at 3000/2995. A break below 2990 re-targets the best support of the day at 2970/65. Obviously this is key, but a break below 2955 is a sell signal & targets 2945 then 3 week bull trend line support at 2935/30. This is the last line of defence for bulls this week. A break below 2920 should therefore act as another sell signal.

Important resistance again today at late January high at 3055/60 & strong longer term trend line resistance at 3065/70 in severely overbought conditions. **TO REPEAT: There is a very high risk this area sees an end to the bear trend recovery.** Shorts need stops above 3090. Bulls really need a close above 3100 to feel more confident longer term.

Ftse March contract

FTSE holding below 6115 targets 6090 then first support at 6070/65, probably the most important of the day. We are oversold short term so a bounce from here possible but the daily chart outlook is negative. If we break lower this is a sell signal & we could target minor support at 6035/30. A break below 6010 targets 5970/65.

Holding minor support at 6115 re-targets 6140, perhaps as far as resistance at 6170/75. A good chance of a high for the day but a break above 6185 could target strong trend line resistance at 6205/10. We have further strong resistance at 6225/35 so there is a big risk that the bear trend recovery ends here. However if we continue higher look for further strong 200 day moving average resistance at 6265. Many obstacles for bulls in severely overbought conditions.

Dax March contract

Dax holding below 9800 today re-targets first support at 9720/10. A break below 9680 is another sell signal & re-target support at 9615/05. A break below 9570 today triggers stops & could accelerate downside moves targeting minor support at 9510/05 then 9450/40.

A break above 9800 however allows a recovery towards 9836/40, perhaps as far as 9900. Gains should be limited so shorts from here up to trend line resistance at late January highs at 9923 should be worth a try. It is only a daily close above 10000 that could put bulls back in short term control. We could then target 10050/60 & but strong resistance at 10100/110 is the next target where the bear market could resume. Even above here we meet the 100 day moving average at 10200, another big obstacle.