Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Down at 97.005, the US Dollar is down 54 ticks and trading at 97.005.
Energies: July Crude is up at 58.34.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and trading at 156.19.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 27 ticks and trading at 2115.00.
Gold: The June gold contract is trading up at 1188.70. Gold is 6 ticks higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading up. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading up which is correlated. Gold is trading up which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia traded mixed with half the exchanges higher and the other half lower. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
- Prelim GDP q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
- Prelim GDP Price Index q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
- Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
Currencies
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 8:50 AM EST after the economic news was reported. The USD hit a high at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a low. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 8:50 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a high at around 8:50 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a low. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted 20 plus ticks on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform
Bias
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral which means the markets could go in any direction. The Dow dropped 37 points other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the USD and Bonds were trading lower but we didn’t see any follow thru on the indices; hence a neutral bias. The markets opened, dropped, went up but thru out the session remained in negative territory. Today we have Preliminary GDP numbers which will weigh heavily on the Fed in deciding whether or not to hike rates. I don’t think the number will be stellar and therefore the Fed should postpone; but time will tell if this is correct…
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
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