Penned In: France is poised to change dramatically, what it means for the EU

France is positioned to undergo a period of radical change following the next election, one way or another.

It looks increasingly like in the coming election, France will chose between former PM François Fillon, a pro Putin, pro euro, Thatcherite socially conservative Anglophile, and Marine Le Pen, a pro Putin, fervently nationalist eurosceptic protectionist.

I’ve always had the gut feeling that France would eventually turn toward the hard left/right hybrid Front National, not in this election but the next. However, I now suspect the process could fast forward.

Whether racial disharmony, refusal to accept economic reform, or general disarray in the political scene, it looks increasingly challenging for France to remain a stable and leading member of the European Union. We are in the age of political upheaval ranging from the Arab Spring, Modi’s ascent in India, Brexit and The Donald. On December 5th, we will know whether continental Europe is likely to follow suit.

The EU is extremely vulnerable because of its fragile and dysfunctional structure, and while an Italian or Austrian withdrawal from the Eurozone has the potential to set in motion great chaos, a French withdrawal is instant death for the European project.

The challenges France faces are multifaceted.

From a social perspective, the country has stark issues to find solutions to. Journalist Ben Judah wrote a harrowing article earlier this year, focused on a creeping political Islamism in France, the exodus of its Jewish population, and the rise of Le Pen. It was penned, pardon the pun, in the middle of the 2016, a year characterised by a relentless stream of terrorist attacks on the beleaguered nation. Judah’s article reads like an obituary.

While Western society faces both self inflicted and external challenges to multiculturalism and integration, there is a general sense that France offers a tougher line on its minorities than its peers. Out of town, isolated ghettos known as Banlieus are hotbeds of unemployment, crime, hardline policing and increasingly, religious extremism.

It should also be no surprise that the majority of the Paris attackers, used migrant routes to travel back into France from ISIS territory unhindered when preparing for the attacks.

This toxic blend of racial tension and the obvious failures of Merkel’s migrant policies have created a fertile environment for Le Pen’s nationalism (and other nationalists across Europe) and also euroscepticism to gain support and cross over into the mainstream.

Politically, it looks like the French public will end up with a choice between Fillon and Le Pen, and this is where things start to get a bit twisted.

As the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, a highly controversial figure in European politics, Marine Le Pen has spent her life as an outsider in French politics. Jean-Marie’s brand of politics has been branded fascist and disassociated from by Nigel Farage, which offers a useful benchmark and perspective on how far France has shifted for her to now be a serious mainstream candidate.

Meanwhile François Fillon is the dictionary definition of a political insider. He comes from a connected family, served as PM under Sarkozy, and has held almost every senior Government role during his extensive career.

Yet, Fillon is heading into this election as the outsider and Le Pen representing the establishment.

France is a socialist-like country, playful referred to as communism that works. As the realities of economic stagnation within the euro straight jacket began to dawn on current socialist President Hollande, major protests hit France this year when he attempted to push through modest reforms.

At present Hollande has the worst approval rates of any French President in history.

It is against this backdrop that we need to ask ourself whether France is screaming for an Anglophilic Thatcherite revolution.

I am not so sure, and actually this is maybe now the unthinkable black swan event in this scenario.

Populist sentiment has been stoked off the back of the migrant crisis and existing racial tensions, and also disapproval of the economic stagnation that is standard procedure for the majority of the eurozone absent Germany.

It is not hard to see why Le Pen has never had a better chance of victory.

Fillon represents social and political status quo and economic revolution while Le Pen offers social and political revolution and economic status quo. While we know all these points are interconnected, to le punter dans la boulevard things are often compartmentalised like this though.

Security is another major issue. Both Fillon and Le Pen are pro Putin, admittedly to varying degrees. This does however mean that a key member of NATO with a nuclear arsenal, who sits on the UN security council nonetheless is about to shift towards a pro Russia position at the height of the new Cold War.

For the EU, this is troubling in a post Trump landscape.

Currently the EU’s key military forces are Britain and France. Both effectively operate now as one military force under the terms of the Lancaster Treaties of 2010. It could even be argued that the removal of Gaddafi by joint British and French forces was the first testing ground for a future EU army.

Now, the EU will almost certainly lose British military and intelligence support unless satisfactory Brexit terms are agreed, and France is set to pivot towards a pro Russian position that could be an obstacle to future EU military advancement.

This is quite a pickle.

Following Fillon’s victory last night, polls offered an insight into the mood of French politics. Le Pen is a mainstream candidate, even taking a lead in some polls.

Now, I know what you’re thinking — polls are untrustworthy. Maybe so, but in this case, they favour the populist candidate whereas the (un)conventional wisdom is that they naturally skew towards establishment figures.

We could either read this as being typical polls (no UKIP), or the populist vote could be much stronger than imagined .

Whatever happens, we know that France is positioned to undergo a period of unprecedented change one way or another.

If Le Pen ends up victorious, all bets are off.