NFP Quick Analysis: Upbeat jobs report a double-edged sword for Trump and the USD

The US employment report beat expectations on jobs and participation.
President Trump can celebrate the low unemployment rate again.
However, further Fed hikes may push stocks lower.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for November beat expectations with a gain of 250,000 positions, well above averages of under 200,000 and early expectations. Net revisions were flat.

Another piece of good news came from the participation rate. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, participation moved up from 62.7% to 62.9%.

The jobless rate remains at the highest levels since the 1960s, and Trump can indeed celebrate.

The third piece of good news was not a surprise but represents a significant milestone. Wages rose by 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY, precisely as expected. Nevertheless, the acceleration above 3% is substantial and is the fastest wage growth since 2009.

Higher wage growth is projected to translate to higher inflation. Higher inflation means higher interest rates by the hawkish Fed. And with higher interest rates, stocks become less attractive. The central bank is expected to hike rates in December and the chances are now higher. They have forecast three additional rate increases in 2019.

The US President follows equity markets very carefully, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He praises himself for gains and blames the Fed for falls.

The President's reaction to the data is critical as Americans go to the polls in four days. Democrats are expected to win the House while Republicans are set to retain the Senate. A split government can weigh on the US Dollar

If stocks remains stable on the eve of the vote, Trump can celebrate the the low unemployment rate. But if rate hike expectations rise and equities drop, it will sour his response.

More: What the US mid-term elections mean for currencies: everything you need to know

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

EUR/USD slumps below 1.1800 on hawkish Fed Minutes, eyes on ECB succession

The EUR/USD pair tumbles to a near two-week low around 1.1785 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro on hawkish FOMC minutes that revived speculation about potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.

GBP/USD extends decline as weak jobs data bolsters BoE rate cut bets

The Pound Sterling continued to backslide under sustained pressure on Wednesday, following through after the UK employment report on Tuesday showed a labour market deteriorating faster than expected.

Gold yearns for acceptance above the $5,000 mark

Gold preserves 2% advance seen on Wednesday as buyers gather pace early Thursday. The US Dollar holds January Fed Minutes-led gains ahead of more US macro data. Gold needs a sustained break above the key $5,000 barrier; daily RSI stays bullish.

Bitcoin approaches a critical zone: Bear pennant projects $56,000

Based on the most recent analyses from February 2026, the short answer is that it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Sui extends sideways action ahead of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF launch

Sui is extending its downtrend for the second consecutive day, trading at 0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token is down over 16% in February and approximately 34% from the start of the year, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment across the crypto market.