Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
I still maintain the view that this chart is in the process of building for another lower high. It is possible that the next lower high has already been formed at $1296.50, but with the exogenous factors that impact on the gold chart (i.e. geopolitical risk) I would remain cautious. Technical factors alone suggest there could be a rally into the band $1300/$1310 still before the medium to longer term negative forces begin to drag the price lower again to retest the recent low at $1273. The intraday hourly chart shows higher lows being left over the past few days and the latest is at $1283.16, which the recovery bulls will be keen to hold on to now. The big caveat to the whole outlook is the geopolitical risk and “war premium” that the conflict in eastern Ukraine adds. A perceived flare up today (quite possible) could result in a sizeable jump (although the spikes have become far less severe in recent weeks). It would need a breach of $1322.60 to change the outlook though.
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