Yellen appears concerned and less bullish, Dollar's outlook takes a blow

General market theme
Janet Yellen’s testimony to the House committee was the event that everybody focused on for the past week and for good reason. Since the beginning of the year the volatility in the financial markets and the slowdown in global demand has led many to doubt whether the Fed will remain firm on their initial plan of continuing to hike interest rates higher. We remind our audience here that their initial agenda included 3-4 more hikes within 2016 hence the strength in the Dollar at the end of 2015.

However yesterday’s testimony by the head of the Fed couldn’t be more clear: they no longer plan to raise rates 3 to 4 times but instead they’re targeting 1 to 2 more rate increases within 2016. This is a clear sign of concern from the Fed and Yellen was clear when she acknowledged the status of the financial markets and how they could affect the domestic economy. She made word for the improvements in the labor market as well but her concerns were obvious.

Price action highlights
The initial reaction from the Dollar was to tick higher as her testimony did mention the positives in the labor market but the key take away was that the Fed is no longer as bullish as before, which we knew but now we have official confirmation. The Euro initially spiked lower since traders realized that if the Fed acknowledged the global situation then the ECB has no other path to take but to ease further. However the decline soon stopped and the Euro hiked to 1.1300 again on the back of more Dollar weakness.

The Cable was rather volatile as early in the morning the drop in the Industrial Production report pushed it lower and the release of Yellen’s statement retested the 1.4450 area but later in the day the weak performance of the Dollar on the back of the Fed commentary drove the Cable above the 1.4500 mark. However with the risk of a Brexit still looming and the performance of the economy not too hot all rallies should be treated as selling opportunities.

Focus of the day
Today the market will focus on Yellen’s comments yesterday as there are no fresh important reports on the docket. The Initial Jobless Claims report is pending for release and the Fed Chairwoman will appear before the Senate’s Banking Committee as well but we expect no changes in her rhetoric.