Marshall Gittler
Trading Analysis
EUR/GBP
The greenback traded lower or unchanged against the other G10 currencies during the European morning Tuesday. The main gainers were EUR, SEK and NOK in that order, while AUD, GBP and JPY were the currencies which had a quiet morning.
The most notable event was the German Ifo survey. After the modest declines in May and June, all three indices unexpectedly rose in July, confounding expectations of further declines. As the Grexit threat recedes, the Eurozone recovery seems to be on track and is set to gather momentum in the third quarter. EUR/USD started an upside race ahead of the release, breaking above the 1.1020 barrier. At the time of the release, bulls added to their gains reaching an intraday high of 1.1112. The short-term trend of EUR/USD is still an uptrend in my view, but following the release, I see signs of a possible slide. Maybe buyers are locking some profits following this morning’s surge.
EUR/GBP traded higher during the European morning Tuesday, breaking above the 0.7100 (S2) zone and reaching an intraday high of 0.7160 (R1). The price structure on the 4-hour chart remains higher peaks and higher troughs, and this prints a positive short-term picture in my opinion. I would expect a clear break above the 0.7160 (R1) resistance barrier to extend the trend and perhaps challenge the next obstacle at 0.7200 (R2), marked by the high of the 13th of July. The RSI entered its above-70 territory, while the MACD, already above both its zero and trigger lines, raced higher. These indicators detect positive momentum and support the continuation of the short-term upside path. However, I would expect a minor retreat before the next positive leg. I see that the RSI shows signs that it could start topping within its overbought territory. A clear move below the support of 0.7130 (S1) is likely to confirm the case and perhaps trigger a slide towards the 0.7100 (S2) zone. On the daily chart, I still see a longer-term downtrend, thus I would consider the short-term uptrend to be a corrective phase of the overall down path.
Support: 0.7130 (S1), 0.7100 (S2), 0.7060 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7160 (R1), 0.7200 (R2), 0.7225 (R3)
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