- The UK Retail Sales report provides vital information about the UK economy and moves the GBP/USD.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The GBPUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 38 pips in the following 4 hours.
Buying GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.81 deviation (actual 0.41) [BUY Pair]
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Key Resistance Level: 1.3215
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.81 or higher(0.41 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 42 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3175 capped the pair back in late July and is an initial line of resistance. 1.3215 was the peak on September 19th and also in early July. 1.3295 was a swing high earlier in the summer.
Selling GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.98 deviation (actual -0.94) [SELL Pair]
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Key Support Level: 1.3000
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.98 or less(-0.94 or lower in actual terms), the GBPUSD may go down reaching a range of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes and 82 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3100 was a low point on September 19th. 1.3080 capped the pair on its way up and also supported it beforehand. 1.3045 was a peak in late August.
GBP/USD Levels on the Chart
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More data
UK retail sales carry lower expectations in the report for August. A fall in the volume of consumption is projected after a robust outcome in July.
See: UK Retail sales Preview: Retailers are set to suffer as back-to-school sales are seen not enough
In the last five releases, the GBPUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 38 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 0.66 in terms of relative deviation and the GBPUSD reached an 8 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 18 pips 4 hours thereafter.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
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