- The UK Retail Sales report is a major market mover for the GBP/USD that had a significant impact on previous releases.
- The Market Impact tool lays out the bullish and the bearish scenarios for trading the event.
Buying GBP/USD scenario
- Tradable Positive Trigger: + 0.42 deviation [BUY Pair]
- Key Resistance Level: 1.4170
If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +0.42 or higher, the pair may go up reaching a range of 48 pips in the first 15 minutes and 82 pips in the following 4 hours.
On the upside, there could be a bit of resistance at 1.4170. Support levels are to be found approximately at 1.4082 and 1.4015 accordingly to the Confluence Indicator.
Selling GBP/USD scenario
- Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.48 deviation [SELL Pair]
- Key Support Level: 1.4082
If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -0.48 or less, the GBP/USD may down up reaching a range of 32 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours.
From a positioning perspective, weak supply is noted at 1.4190. Some vestiges of demand can be seen around 1.4000, based on aggregated trading positions from FXStreet's dedicated contributors.
GBP/USD Levels on the chart
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How Retail Sales rocked the GBP/USD previously
In the last five releases, the GBP/USD moved, on average, 37 pips in the 15 minutes after the release and 83 pips in the 4 hours after the announcement.
The previous release had a surprise of -0.86 measured regarding deviation, and the GBP/USD reached the 59 pips of volatility 15 minutes after the release and 121 pips in the following four hours.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
UK Retail Sales February Report
After a few disappointing months, the UK Retail Sales report is expected to show a rise. The headline number carries expectations for an increase of 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Retail Sales excluding fuel carry expectations for +0.4% MoM and 1.2% YoY.
More: February retail sales are expected to rise mildly after winter deadlock
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