The Bob Dylan Hedge 

The gold markets appear to be putting on the Bob Dylan hedge sooner than I expected and "taking shelter from the Phase 2 storm."
Gold is trading in a $1547.00-$1553.00 range so far and bids on! Unless we get a more on the nose type of surprise, like an explicit roadmap for a further rollback in tariffs strategic buying on dip should remain in place.
 The current level of "P1 tariff rollback, is unlikely to provide enough US domestic economic punch to shift the Fed hawkish. But the one "buyer beware" for gold bulls would be in the event central banks in general turn less dovish amid risk-on sentiment. Until that unlikely pivot, gold should head higher over time.
Given the differences between the US and China are so vast, it's likely worth hedging the tail that the P2 deal might not ever happen. After all, China seems to be adjusting well to life without the US demand impulse.

However, with trade becoming little more than a political mechanism in an election year, oh yea, another reason to own gold, who knows what going to happen on the trade war front. But its this inherent uncertainty that makes gold an excellent go too hedge.

As for macro, while the economic data is suggesting things haven’t got worse. Still, at the same time, it doesn’t point to a significant rerating of the economy — Friday’s NFP print the latest example of any bullish risk momentum getting snuffed out. So far this year, the tremendous global growth trade of 2020 has been a bust, and you don’t need to look much further for evidence than the resilient USD and sagging oil prices.

Losses in derivatives trading can exceed deposits. Refer to for legal documentation & licences

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD capped under 1.13 as Lagarde hints at inaction

EUR/USD is trading below 1.13, steady. ECB President Lagarde hinted she will pause in next week's decision while urging leaders to agree on fiscal stimulus. US coronavirus data and Sino-American relations are eyed.


Gold: Bulls await fresh impetus to conquer $1800

The flight to safety theme, in the face of rising coronavirus cases and regional lockdowns globally, drove Gold drove to its highest level since November 2011 just below the $1800 mark. Will it conquer the key level in the day ahead? 

Gold News

GBP/USD holds up around 1.2550 ahead of Sunak's speech

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2550, holding onto its gains. UK Chancellor Sunak is set to lay out the fiscal stimulus plan. Brexit remains deadlocked as PM Johnson told German Chancellor Merkel that Britain could leave without a deal.


Forex Today: Gold eyeing $1,800, dollar mixed, as coronavirus, Hong Kong peg move markets

Markets are looking for a new direction after stocks retreated and the dollar gained some ground on Tuesday. Concerns about coronavirus cases in the US and geopolitical tensions are in play.

Read more

WTI looks for a firm direction below $41.00, EIA inventories eyed

WTI recedes from intraday top while also keeping the bounce off daily low near $40.30. Global pressure on China, coronavirus resurgence keeps a lid on the blackgold. European oil giant follows BP and Shell to cut price forecast. EIA Crude Oil Stocks expected to drop 3.4M versus prior fall of 7.195M.

Oil News

Forex Majors