FX Board: Swissie dips, JPY bears slip

• Swiss franc was weaker today

• Commodity currencies bounced back

• What will critical upcoming US events do to the USD?

Key developments in FX today

• Mostly muted trading ranges today, USDJPY was quite active and reversed course from Friday's strong close, though not far enough to threaten a reversal as the 121.00/50 pivot zone for a challenge of the top remains in play ahead of this week's key FOMC (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) event risks.

• The Swiss franc was weaker today, interesting in particular for EURCHF and USDCHF traders, as the former partially rejected an attempt through the important 1.0800 support area, while USDCHF charged through a trend-line and has long-standing resistance above 0.9800 in play ahead of a long string of US event risks through next Friday's employment report - see charts below.

• The commodity currencies bounced back after Friday's late weakness as the post-PBoC rate move gave technicians false hopes for more commodity dollar weakness - keeping AUDUSD and NZDUSD, for example, in indecisive ranges.

• The interesting development from here for the USD will be whether this and next week's combination of critical US event risks can see a broad reinvigoration of the USD bull trend, or whether that trend will be water down by strong, traditional risk-on currencies, like the major emerging markets currencies and commodity dollars, for example.

AUDUSD

The choppy action late Friday was inspired by the PBoC's rate cut and gave us what so far has proven a false bearish signal, as today's action has seen the pair springing back to life. The situation for AUDUSD will likely remain in a nervous neutral state until we get to the other side of Wednesday's quarterly Australian CPI release and the FOMC meeting, as we watch whether the pair realizes bigger ambitions toward 0.7500+ or is pounded back toward the 0.7000 level as the market more aggressively prices eventual RBA rate cuts.

EURCHF

A partial reversal today of the attempt to work down through the important 1.0800 area support late last week is an interesting development, though the rally needs to retake 1.0900 for more significance. Needless to say, however, that it is interesting that the pair has pulled back above the level where it was trading shortly after last Thursday's ECB meeting.

USDCHF (weekly)

Continuing with the CHF focus, note the tremendous, steep rally in USDCHF that has taken the pair through the descending trendling and back near the recent highs. The last important resistance is up around 0.9900 that could being the parity, 1.0200+ levels into play - a scenario that will likely need a shift higher in Fed rate expectations after this Wednesday's FOMC meeting and subsequent key data through next Friday's US payrolls release.