Hourly
Yesterday’s Trading:
On Wednesday the euro/dollar stuck with the forecast: the euro closed near the LB. The EUR couldn’t manage to strengthen against the dollar due to weak German stats and a fall in the euro/pound cross.
Main news of the day:
At 09:00 EET, Germany is publishing external trade data;
At 14:00 EET, the UK will let us all know its interest rate decision, the way in which the MPC members voted and their asset purchasing program, as well as information on the current Bank of England monetary policy;
At 14:30 EET, the ECB’s report form their monetary policy meeting will be out;
At 15:30 EET, the US is publishing data on unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 4th October, 2015;
At 21:00 EET, the BoE’s Mark Carney will speak;
At 21:00 EET, the FOMC’s minutes will be out.
Market Expectations:
On Thursday there are some important events planned for the currency market. First will be the Bank of England’s base rate decision, then the ECB minutes and those of the FOMC. At 21:00 EET the BoE’s Mark Carney is giving a speech. It’s difficult to say which way the market will go today. If we look at the technical side of things, we could see it shooting up to 1.1300 if we also see a rise in the euro/pound cross. If we go off fundamental news, the euro only has one way: down towards parity.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 124 points (4 figures).
The euro/dollar has broken away from the LB and is trading around 1.1258. A break in 1.1275 will shove the euro towards 1.1290. A rise in the cross could see a growth all the way to the 90th degree at 1.1316. The sellers’ target is 1.1200.
Daily
The euro/dollar is trading underneath the trend line. Today’s situation should be decided. The technical side of the hourly is saying the euro is going to rise, but the fundamental data is saying the opposite. Now to the Weekly.
Weekly
The euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways between 1.1086 and 1.1459 and so we are still waiting for it to leave this channel.
Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.