GBPUSD remains resilient within a sideways channel and around the 1.4100 level, where the 23.6% Fibonacci of the latest upleg also resides (1.3668 – 1.4248).
The recent soft dwindle below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the blue Kijun-sen line favors a negative extension towards the important long-term ascending trendline and the 50-day SMA, both converging to the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.4026. Slightly beneath, the 50% Fibonacci of 1.3958 may attempt to catch the fall ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3852, while a dip below the 1.3800 number could spark a more aggressive sell-off towards the two-month low of 1.3668.
Likewise, the RSI and the MACD warrant some caution too, as the former has yet to change its negative trajectory despite the consolidation around its 50 neutral level, while the latter continues to decelerate below its red signal line.
Nevertheless, the longer the price trades around 1.4100 the larger the odds for an upside reversal. In this positive scenario, the tough 1.4235 – 1.4250 resistance region will come first into view, and should it give way this time, the door would open for the 2018 peak of 1.4375. Higher, the next stop could be near the 1.4665 barrier from 2016.
Summarizing, GBPUSD keeps facing downside risks in the short-term picture, though the longer the price remains resilient around the 1.4100 level, the smaller the likelihood for a bearish move.
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