Oil, a multi-month bottom?

Near term crude oil outlook:

In the Jan 13th email and the market near its lows at $44.20, said it was an "ideal" area to form a more important bottom. The market did indeed bounce from that day, and with lots of positives still suggesting that a bottom for at least a month (and potentially more, see longer term below) is in place (or at least close). Note that the market is seen within the final downleg in the fall from at least the Nov 21st high at $77.83 (wave 5), technicals are positive (see buy mode on the daily macd), the apex of the triangle from Dec occurred near Jan 13th (often coincides with market turns as discussed in that Jan 13th email), and the upmove from that $44.20 occurred in 5 waves (argues upside not "complete", see short term chart at my blog at http://www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm). Nearby support is seen at $45.75/00 and that $44.00/25 low. Resistance is seen at $48.75/00 and last week's spike high at $51.25/50. Bottom line: seen basing from the Jan 13th low at $44.20.

Strategy/position:

Finally took profit on the Dec 22nd sell at $57.25 on the Jan 16th close above that trendline from Nov (then at $46.75, closed at $48.69 for $8.56). At this point with a bottom seen potentially in place, would buy here (currently at $46.50). Initially stop on a close below $43.95 (just below that $44.20 and to allow for more basing), but switching to a more aggressive, trailing stop on a resumption of the gains to maintain a good overall risk/reward in the position.

Long term outlook:

As discussed above, an even more important bottom (for at least 2-3 months) may also be in place (or very close) as long term positives are also appearing. They include a very oversold market after the tumble from the June high at $107.73, widely bearish sentiment (contrary indicator), the recent test of that long term support at the bullish trendline from Dec 1998 (see weekly chart/2nd chart below), and at least a nearer term bottom (see above, larger reversals generally begin with smaller ones). A final note, this potential 2-3 months (or more) of upside may be more of an extended period of wide chopping with an upward bias, and with good sized moves in both directions (versus a one way move as the decline from June was). A common occurrence after sharp moves, while the seasonal chart doesn't bottom until mid Feb (see 3rd chart below), and raises the likelihood of this broader type, wide ranging action ahead. Bottom line : potentially more important bottoming (at least a few months).

Strategy/position:

With a near term bottom in place (or at least close) and potential for a more important low, would also switch the longer term bias to the bullish side here (currently at $46.50).

Current:

Nearer term : buy Jan 20th at $46.50, some risk for more basing nearby.
Last : short Dec 22 at 57.25, took profit Jan 16 above t-line from Nov (46.75, closed 48.68, for $8.56).

Longer term : bull bias Jan 20th at $46.50, bottom for at least a few months in place (or close).