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Strong gains through the day for USD/CAD, in what has been a relentless move higher since the brief dip below 1.2500 at the start of the week. With extremely shallow pullbacks on the way up, we have reached levels some 24/5 ticks shy of the 1.2900 level, and up here, we sense the resistance will be a little more influential. As well as the Oil correlation, the Canadian trade deficit came in much wider than expected, compared to a modest contraction in its US counterpart, so the fundamental backdrop has justified a large chunk of today’s moves. US ADP was the one everyone was waiting for, but coming in well below expectations, there was a very brief hit on the USD before non-manufacturing ISM and factory goods orders in the US beat median expectations. This limited the upside in EUR/USD to 1.1520-25, while Cable has been – and still is – well offered ahead of 1.4600, with NY looking to test lower levels here, as in AUD and NZD. AUD support strong ahead of .7400, so we will see a battle down here. Cable looking heavy as EUR/GBP continues to test higher, but pre .8000 expected to be well offered. USD/JPY is hemmed in to 105.00-107.50 for the near term, but is showing signs that the upside limits are more vulnerable. Wall Street performance will be key from here, but in the red going into the London close.
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