EURUSD edged back below 1.0600 before risk events

With market participants focussing on the risk events coming up tomorrow and on Friday, notably the ECB rate decision and US NFP report. USD has spent the day climbing higher, with EUR edging back below the 1.0600 level. EUR saw notable weakness this morning on the back of a lower than expected reading of Eurozone CPI (Core Y/Y 0.90% vs. Exp. 1.10%), with participants interpreting the data as making it more likely that the ECB will be forced to act.

Elsewhere in terms of data, today’s US ADP employment change (217K vs. Exp. 190K) would make positive reading for any Fed hawks ahead of the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. Much of the rhetoric over the last few weeks from Fed members has been that if the economy continues to tighten slack then the Fed will be on track to lift rates at their December meeting and with Friday showing the last NFP report before the crucial meeting, today’s NFP carried extra significance and as such saw the greenback continue its recent climb. As such, the USD-index continued its recent climb and heads into the European close above the crucial 100.00 level, while weighing on major pairs with GBP/USD falling below 1.5000 and USD/JPY approaching 123.50.

Finally of note, commodity currencies were once again in focus today with AUD and CAD initially benefitting from a higher than expected GDP reading and the BoC keeping rates on hold and withholding dovish rhetoric. Late in the European session commodity currencies saw a further bid after comments from Iran suggesting that the majority of OPEC members agree on an output cut according to Iran, however the move was pared shortly after when clarification revealed that Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab countries are not among the countries supporting a cut.

Looking ahead, tomorrow’s highlight is undoubtedly the ECB rate decision, however participants will also see a number of services and composite PMIs, US challenger job cuts and weekly employment data as well as a host of ECB and Fed speakers.