The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.1850 on Friday after the US inflation number missed estimates. The daily chart below shows a nice rebound from the trend line support. This is encouraging sign for the bulls and the options data published by the CME shows the investors expect the rebound to continue today. 

EUR/USD EUUU7 Open Interest Change: Current (Aug 11 - Prelim) vs. Aug 10

  • The max OI accumulation is seen in 1.20 Call option, suggesting the level is likely to act as a strong resistance. 
  • The OI accumulation in the Put options is spread mainly over 1.1750 strike, 1.17 strike, 1.1650 strike and 1.16 strike. Higher accumulation is seen in 1.10 Put. 

  • On Friday, max additions were seen in 1.1850 Call, which suggests investors are expecting the rally from the trendline support to continue this week. Call buying was also seen in 1.18 and 1.19 Call, while Call writing was seen at 1.21 strike. 
  • 1.16 Put option added 377 contracts, taking the tally OI to second highest, thus suggesting that a breach of the level to the downside could yield sharp losses. 

View: 

  • Options activity suggests the investors expect a re-test of the recent highs around 1.1910 and possibly breach the same for 1.20 handle.
  • However, the ratio [0.09] of change in the Put OI [+235] to the change in the Call OI [+2390] signal extreme bullish sentiment, if we take into account the overbought nature of the pair following a 1500 pip rally.

USD/JPY - Investors expect bullish reversal confirmation

Friday’s Doji candle [bearish exhaustion] has been followed by a rally to 109.80 levels today. A positive end of the day close today would confirm bullish reversal, i.e. the sell-off from the high of 114.49 [July 11 high] has ended. 

The options data for JPY/USD published by the CME shows the investors do not see the Yen holding strength or have bought downside protection against Yen longs, given the recent rally has been fueled by the geopolitical tensions, which tend to die down quickly. 

On Friday, investors boosted the open interest [OI] in the Put options by 314 contracts. The OI in In-The-Money {IMT} put options improved by 276 contracts. 

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