Weekly Market Forecast & Trade Ideas - August 17th to 21st 2015

EURUSD - Euro/dollar potential for upside movement continues

We are currently mildly bullish on the EURUSD and will consider a long entry if we get a clear 4 hour or daily chart buy signal.We are watching support down near 1.1000 and slightly above for a price action buy signal if price rotates lower. A move up above resistance at 1.1200 could ignite short-covering and a larger rally back up to 1.1400 key resistance area.A sell signal up near 1.1400 resistance could then be a potential shorting opportunity if price does get back up to that level.

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar remains strong

We remain bullish biased on the GBPUSD and we will continue looking fora buy signal to get long. There’s near-term support down between 1.5535 – 1.5465and we can look for buy signals there this week if price rotates lower. We may also see a bullish fakey pattern form following Friday’s inside bar pattern, this could also be an opportunity to get long. We aren’t expecting huge movement here, but buying the dips (rotations lower) has been working lately and that remains our strategy of choice in the coming days.

USDJPY – Dollar/yen uptrend continues, looking to buy

The USDJPY bullish trend remains intact and we are looking for evidence it initiate a long entry. Price is currently down near ‘value’ or support, and will probably show its hand early this week. We see two inside bars that formed late last week, these could see a false break to the downside and possibly form a bullish fakey buy signal. Watch the daily and 4 hour chart for obvious buy signals.

GBPJPY – Sterling/yen inside bar pattern

The GBPJPY remains in a clear uptrend and we can see price has been holding its own among its yen counter parts lately. Late last week, we can see inside bars formed (see chart below), we could see price breakout to the upside from these and continue the uptrend. If price breaks lower from them first however, we can watch for a bullish fakey pattern to form, which could be a good buy signal. Note also that on the 4 hour chart there pin bar signals still in play from last week; potential buy signals.

S&P500 – S&P500 pin bar signal still in play

In our recent commentary on the S&P500 we discussed a large bullish pin bar signal that formed on August 12th. This pin bar is still in play and we will look to get long, ideally on a retrace back to or near the pin bar’s halfway point (see chart below). Whilst above 2070.00 – 2060.00 key support zone, this market is looking very bullish with potential to at least test 2105.00 resistance.

Gold – Gold remains buoyant but overall trend still down

Gold moved above 1105.00 last week but stalled into the week’s end. Still, that 1105.00 level remains important for active traders this week; whilst above it we see potential for mildly higher prices, perhaps back up to 11400.00 – 1150.00 region. If 1105.0 fails however, there is massive risk to the downside. If we do get up to that 1140.00 – 1150.00 resistance zone we will look for 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart price action signals to sell,in-line with the overall downtrend.

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