Morning View:
Good morning from our wet and dreary Sydney office!
Stay safe!
Grexit Risk:
I keep banging on about it, but don’t get sucked into trading spikes on the back of headlines. If you read the word ‘Greece’ and you’re not looking at your Mum’s DVD collection then don’t trade it!
Last night as we head into the EU session, EUR/USD spiked down only to rally all through the US as traders realised that Greek risk is old news.
If you’re interested, the headline in question was that ECB staff are proposing to increase the ‘haircuts’ on Greek bank collateral that is offered in exchange for Emergency Liquidity Assistance from the Bank of Greece.
UK Trader Arrested for 2010 ‘Flash Crash':
The interesting story out this morning is that UK commodities trader Navinder Singh Sarao has been arrested in connection with the sharp spike down then up in the DJIA in 2010.
Sarao would ‘spoof’ (place fake orders that he had no intention of trading) the futures market by adding large orders on the sell side that he would cancel. These fake orders would increase the spread between the bid and ask price so that other traders would stay away from the best price.
You can read more by doing a quick Google search but this issue is nothing new or unusual. This happens thousands of times a day. To arrest Sarao is actually kind of laughable and just comes across as a massive scapegoating.
On the Calendar Today:
CPI data is the big release on the calendar today. The forecast is for the level to have stayed at record lows, putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates next month.
Tuesday:
AUD CPI
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
USD Existing Home Sales
USD Crude Oil Inventories
Chart of the Day:
I posted these GBP/USD charts yesterday in the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre. The descending channel on the daily chart caught my eye, especially the way price is stepping down between supply/demand levels.
GBP/USD Daily 1:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
GBP/USD Daily 1:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains above 1.0700 amid expectations of Fed refraining from further rate hikes
EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
GBP/USD gains traction above 1.2500, Fed keeps rates steady
GBP/USD gains traction near 1.2535 during the early Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the sharp decline of the US Dollar after the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged.
Gold needs to reclaim $2,340 for a sustained recovery
Gold price is consolidating Wednesday’s rebound in Asian trading on Thursday, as buyers await more employment and wage inflation data from the United States for fresh trading impetus. Traders also digest the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's words delivered late Wednesday.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
Fed meeting: The hawkish pivot that never was, and the massive surge in the Yen
The Fed’s latest meeting is over, and the tone was more dovish than expected, but that is because the rate hike hype in the US was over-egged, and rate cut hopes had been pared back too far in recent weeks.