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Fed and central bank interest rates: EUR/USD, AUD, TRY, NZD, CAD

Overnight Fed rates held 0.06 daily since April 29th then 0.07 ruled daily markets from February to April and 0.08 from January to February. Fed Funds at 0.06 trades below Canada's Corra at 0.19, below AUD and RBA at 0.10, miles below NZD and RBNZ, Below EUR and the ECB at 0.51, light years below BOJ and JPY at 0.96, below BOE and GBP at 0.04.

Here's your evidence to a low, oversold and dead mover USD and DXY. The RBA and AUD rates trades 4 points, BOJ and JPY trades 4 points, RBNZ and NZD won't move, BOC and Canada trades 6 points. Extremely rare day for the RBNZ to not move but they joined the no movement interest rate gang of central banks.

The ECB's Eonia rate trades today the exact same rate as January 1. The ECB spreads interefst rates an extraordinary 78 points. This is called contain EUR/USD movements as normal ECB is about 15 points and EUR moves. Its far worse for the Fed but enough to contain USD and DXY. USD means any and all USD pairs to include EM.

Here's your evidence to dead currency and all market prices.

A Fed raise 1/2 or 0.25 point to 0.50 means 0.06 goes to 0.18 and then becomes competitive to all central banks yet still low. If Central banks wish to maintain current interest rate distance to the FED then all central banks must move therr own interest rates. If central banks refuse to raise or move interest rates then currency price ranges will surely compress further as intrest rate distances comstrict.

Literally all eyes on the FED as leader of interest rates and currency price moves. The job of central banks is to position interest rates comeptitive to the FED yet enough to restrict currency price movements.

AUD and RBA for example before the drop to 0.10, positioned RBA interest rates at exact opposite to Fed Rates. As RBA rates are so drastically low, the RBA lacks the same opportunity as rates are near zero. The typical RBNZ operation is it sets Interest rates in wide bands to stop NZD movements, much the same as the ECB is doing currently. Pretty much the same for the BOE and GBP.

Yet the latest for the BOE is move daily interest rates by moving slightly the decimal point. If yesterday's rates traded 0.0467 then today's rates move 0.0469. Essentially no movement and GBP trades dead.

Here's the catch to raise Fed Rates. To taper or restrict the overall balance sheet then 0.06 as the overnight rate should trade higher naturally as interest rates and money supplies shares and must share an adverse relationship. But an 0.08 move for the overnight rate won't see a differenc to currency price moves. We need a substabtial difference to rates to experience not only beter daily, weekly and monthly moves but good volatility again.

Trades

EUR/USD must break 1.2105 to travel lower. The 5 vital numbers are located at 1.2066, 1.2071, 1.2087, 1.2156 and 1.2187.

AUD/USD 0.7704 decides higher to 0.7730 or lower to 0.7752. USD/CAD's 5 vital numbers today 1.2119, 1.2125, 1.2142, 1.2212, 1.2243.

Last week USD/CAD target at 1.2201 achieved 1.2203 from 1.2056.

EUR/USD and USD/CAD contain the same exact same movements as well as support and resistance points.

GBP/NZD weekly trade from short 1.9771 to target 1.9661 traded to 1.9695 lows or + 76 pips and EUR/NZD traded +51 pips.

CHF/JPY from short from 122.70 and 122.81 achieved exacrtly 122.80 highs and lows to 122.26 for +54 pips.

USD/TRY 5 vital numbers for today 8.4963, 8.5070, 8.5177, 8.5605, 8.5819.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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