Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
Thu Lan Nguyen, FX Strategist at Commerzbank AG, on AUD
What will be the main drivers for AUD during the same period?
I believe that the AUD will continue to weaken on a broad basis in the first quarter of this year as lower commodity prices and a weaker Chinese economy continue to provide considerable headwinds for the Australian economy as well as inflation. And this in turn should keep speculation regarding further rate cuts by the RBA up. In addition to that, we see a good chance that the Fed will act on the continued recovery of the US economy, particularly the strong labour market, and hike its key rate further in March.
What performance do you expect from the Australian Dollar versus its major counterparts during the 1st quarter of 2016?
We expect the AUD to mainly weaken against the USD as monetary divergence is most pronounced in this case. The AUD will fare a little better against the EUR, as the ECB has already demonstrated that it is reluctant to ease monetary policy more aggressively, although inflation continues to disappoint. Against this background, we do not expect any excessive EUR weakness in the foreseeable future.
What are your forecasts for AUD/USD, AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY for the Q1 of 2016?
We expect the AUD/USD currency pair to be around 0.68 levels and the AUD/NZD we anticipate to reach 1.10 levels. Talking about the AUD/JPY currency pair, we believe it will be rolling up around 86 levels.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.