The next part would be a completely new referendum for independence

Robert Bergqvist, Chief economist at SEB, on Catalonia independence vote consequences

The political future of Catalonia, Spain’s industrial heartland and one of its wealthiest regions, was questioned on 9 November, where citizens voted whether or not they want to see Catalonia as an independent state. Catalonian independence were favoured by 81%. Taking this into account, how could the separation affect the economy? What is the positive and negative side of it?

In my point of view, the result of the referendum served as a message to the policy makers within the EU area. Apparently, some regions or countries would like to have more independence, and if that is the case, it could potentially jeopardize the future of the Euro. This generates a negative outlook for the economic growth, because households could become more cautious in consumption investments. In other words, any kind of increase in political uncertainty indicates that we have less cooperation between the 18 Euro zone countries. What is needed for both the Euro area and the Euro zone in order to create stability is more economic policy integration and a step to be closer together.

In case the Catalonian independence will eventually happen, is it likely that the new currency will be brought and how will it affect the Euro?

Talking about a new currency, this could be possible, however, that requires a lot of speculations. In addition to that, the next part would be a completely new referendum for independence. So far, the 9 October vote was likely as an advisory. Nonetheless, you need to establish a high participation rate in order to receive a clearer answer. Therefore, I would say it is too early to predict anything on the matter of fact. What is more important now is whether the Euro zone can cooperate more in order to reduce the appetite for Catalonia’s independence.

Catalonia, in case of becoming a newly independent country, will have to reapply for the European Union membership. Is there a guarantee for it to succeed?

As an example, if we take a look at what is happening in the UK, and the Scottish independence vote results in particular, I see that it might be a word from Brussels to Scotland itself, saying that it was a challenge for them to apply for the EU membership. However, in my opinion, Brussels will find a possible way to negotiate regarding the EU membership.