Events to look out for next week

Recovery expectations have moved back to the forefront, although inflation concerns and fear of a U-turn at central banks are likely to continue to linger next week. On the pandemic front, the curve has finally turned lower in the daily rate of new Covid cases, aided by the situation in India improving but also as the global vaccine supply capacity remains on a march higher. Of greater significance will be an abundance of data releases such as GDP, PMI and trade data.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 17 May 2021

• Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The final Retail Sales for April is expected to eased at 24.9% y/y from 34.2% y/y last month.

• Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The preliminary Japanese GDP for Q1 is forecasted to decline by -1.2% q/q while annualized is expected to contract to -4.6% y/y.

Tuesday – 18 May 2021

• RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – No surprises from the RBA is expected. Last time, the bank left policy unchanged, but upgraded the economic outlook to expect GDP growth of 4 3/4% this year. The statement suggested that July will bring a review of the yield target and quantitative easing. Interest rates, however are set to remain at emergency levels until at least 2024.The comments added to speculation that central banks may start to take the foot off the accelerator and begin to taper purchases in the second half of this year — depending on virus developments and vaccine rollouts.

• Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to increase to 4.8% y/y in the three months to March from 4.5% last time. UK ILO unemployment is expected unchanged at 4.9%.

• Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 should remains unchanged to -1.8% y/y and -0.6%q/q.

Wednesday – 19 May 2021

• Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The final UK CPI for April is anticipated to hold unchanged at 0.3% m/m. The core inflation is seen at 1.1% y/y. A sharp rise in y/y inflation is in store in the months ahead, driven by a pronounced base effect caused by the consequences of last year’s global lockdowns.

• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final Euro Area CPI for April is anticipated to hold at 0.9% m/m while the core inflation is seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

• Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – April’s CPI is expected higher at 0.6% from its 0.5% m/m.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Thursday – 20 May 2021

• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a negative employment report, with employment change only at 15k growth and unemployment to ticking up to 5.7% for April.

• US Weekly Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Following a new post pandemic low last week of 473,000 new weekly claims and the four week average falling to 534,000, expectations are for this improving trend to continue lower.

Friday – 21 May 2021

• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The prelim. Retail Sales for April is expected to slump at 1.5% m/m from 5.4% m/m last month.

• Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prelim. Eurozone composite PMI are expected a tack lower at 52.8 in May from 53.8. In May 5 it was revised up in the final reading for January, at 47.8, while the headline remained firmly in contraction territory. The services reading was revised up to 45.4 from 45.0, but that still highlighted that the services sector is taking most of the hit from renewed lockdowns across Eurozone countries. Even though manufacturing continues to expand, this isn’t helping consumer sentiment. Overall, Germany may be the one that could escape another technical recession, but the Eurozone overall clearly is set for a renewed contraction in activity in Q1, after activity already dropped off in Q4 last year.

• UK Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –  The prelim. May services expected unchanged after the April final services PMI revised up to 61.0 from 60.1 down to 56.3 from 56.8.