|

Euro parity calls are back – Bitcoin at important price level

Forex

Euro: Parity calls are very much in play when it comes to the EUR/USD pair. The conflict in Ukraine is expected to push German recovery in despair. 

Investor confidence in Europe's largest economy is at its lowest level since the outbreak of the epidemic, as businesses continue to be concerned about the consequences of the crisis on the EU's border. The ZEW institute's gauge of expectations decreased to -41 in April, down from -39.3 the previous month, while the indicator of present circumstances worsened.

The weakness in the euro is likely to prevail, and this is despite the fact that with every day passing, we hear more and more hawkish tones coming from the European Central Bank. However, currency traders are completely ignoring those calls as they are more focused on the dollar index and its strength. The fact that some members of the Federal Reserve have renewed speculation that the Fed could still increase the interest rate by 75 basis points has brought more strength to the dollar index.

Having said that, Euro bears should keep in mind that the European economy could farewell than current expectations, and this represents a significant risk to the Euro-dollar parity call. For instance, the Governing Council could potentially become immensely sensitive to headline inflation, or wage growth in the Eurozone could see a sharp rise—although this isn't a likely scenario. All of this could push the interest rate hike much forward, and we could potentially see an interest rate by the ECB as early as July.

Cryptos

Bitcoin price retraced to 30K price level, which we predicted in our yesterday's comment. There is no doubt that the Bitcoin price is extremely oversold, and the message of this can be seen by looking at the RSI indicator on the daily time frame chart, which tells us that the price is oversold. In addition to this, the 30K support level is of extreme importance among traders, and no one wants to see the price falling below this price level as it will seriously damage the price action.

It is important to keep one thing in mind, and that is bitcoin price at its current does represent a huge bargain opportunity, and it will not be long before we start hearing funds and corporates bagging bitcoin at its current price levels. For instance, yesterday, El Salvador bought more Bitcoins, and this continues to send one message and one message alone, and that is sheer determination to back bitcoin no matter what.

Technically speaking, on-chain transaction analysis also confirms that Hodlers are still unshaken by the current price action, as transaction analysis doesn't seem to suggest that Hodlers are liquidating their positions.

However, if the price breaks the 30K price level, it is highly possible that we may see some capitulation taking place, and that could bring another wave of intense sell-off for Bitcoin.

Author

Naeem Aslam

Naeem Aslam

Zaye Capital Markets

Based in London, Naeem Aslam is the co-founder of CompareBroker.io and is well-known on financial TV with regular contributions on Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, Fox Business, France24, Sky News, Al Jazeera and many other tier-one media across the globe.

More from Naeem Aslam
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD looks offered just above 0.7100

AUD/USD has extended Monday’s pessimism, briefly breaching below the key. 0.7100 contention zone to hit three-day lows. The firmer tone in the Greenback has been keeping the Aussie under pressure while investors continued to gear up for the upcoming Trump-Xi Summit on Thursday.

USD/JPY holds small gains near 157.50 as JPY intervention risks loom

USD/JPY posts modest gains while trading near 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday as intervention fears help limit losses for the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish rate hike to a 31-year high keeps JPY bulls on the back foot. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone amid the Fed's hawkish outlook and escalating Middle East tensions, providing tailwinds for the pair.

Gold makes a U-turn; focus shifts to $4,400

Gold regains balance and now trades with decent gains, approaching the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes despite the resumption of the buying interest in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin reclaims key moving averages, altering bear cycle pattern
Bitcoin (BTC) may have altered its bear-cycle pattern after climbing above its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages, according to K33. In a Tuesday report, K33 noted that every time Bitcoin reclaimed all four major averages before now, it happened after the market had already established its cycle low.
Trump meets Xi: Why markets are watching this summit so closely
United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Washington on Thursday for a summit closely watched by markets. After several months of easing trade tensions between the US and China, the meeting could determine whether the world's two largest economies extend their truce or enter a new period of uncertainty.
BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.