The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A completed bear flag? Yesterday’s rise to 1.2723 might very well have been the final move higher in this minor upward correction. Also the fact that the ascent is so slow compared to the preceding decline also argues for it to be merely a correction. A 1.2665 break will now likely be enough to get things going more impulsively for the downside.
USD/JPY. Pushing at the mid body support. With the slimmest of margins a bearish key day reversal was avoided (i.e. we didn’t close below 107.78). The price action is nevertheless increasingly bearish so we are expecting more attacks on the 107.70 mid body support and if giving way the market will soon explore levels in the low 107’s.
S&P 500. Pushing for a 233d ma band break. The past three sessions the market has been huffing and puffing to break the 233d ma band resistance but the current strength just doesn’t seems to be enough. In an hourly graph one can also spot a rising wedge formation so we think it is rather likely that we will see a setback to the 1920 area in order to gather strength for a following break higher.
BRENT CRUDE: More consolidation needed. Again we found bids/buyers around the mid body point of Oct 16 bullish benchmark candle. The behaviour together with the bullish Oct 23 candle still points at an incomplete consolidation so we remain with our view that we should see either a move to 87.97 (if the consolidation is a bear triangle) or up to 89.17 (if the consolidation is a bear flag). Breaking 84.12 confirms the end to the congestion and accordingly new lows.
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