The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EUR/USD: We favour an eventual break below here and 1.3477 to complete a large bear "wedge".
EUR/USD is back weighing on key support at 1.3513/03 – the June low, uptrend from July 2012 and "neckline" support. We allow for this to hold further, but favour an eventual break below here and then the 1.3477 low for the year to confirm the complete the expected large bear "wedge". This should then trigger further weakness to 1.3399 initially, ahead of 1.3248/28 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2012/2014 uptrend.
Resistance shows at 1.3541 initially, then 1.3570/87, above which can see strength back to the downtrend at 1.3611.
USD/JPY: Below 100.85/75 would mark a large top.
USDJPY has declined sharply, taking out the near-term price and 50% retracement support at 101.44. Further weakness should see a move towards the recent low at 101.06, followed by a challenge of more important support from the lower end of the medium-term range at 100.85/75. Only below this latter area would mark a large top, aiming at 99.64 initially – the 50% retracement of June 2013/Jan 2014 rise.
Immediate resistance shows at 101.42, then 101.58, above which should see a retest of the 101.81/88 recent high and 61.8% retracement. Above can here see a small base to aim at the July high at 102.28.
GBP/USD: Support at 1.7059/52 must hold to avoid a fresh top and a deeper setback.
GBPUSD has fallen back in its current range, leaving the immediate focus the low end of the range at 1.7059/52, which must hold to avoid a fresh top, and a deeper setback to 1.7008/1.6998 – the 38.2% retracement of the May/July rally. Although we would expect buying here, a break can see weakness extend to price and the rising 55-day average at 1.6952/38.
Above 1.7145/52 is needed to look to the 1.7181 early July high. Above here is needed to confirm a resumption of the uptrend to potential trend resistance at 1.7280 next, and eventually our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32.
AUD/USD: Only below .9330/22 completes a top, for weakness to .9230/.9202.
We stay biased for a break here to complete a top, clearing the way for further weakness to .9258 initially, and then what we view as more important support at .9230/.9202. Below this latter area would see a much larger bearish reversal established, suggesting the core medium-term bear trend has resumed. Immediate resistance shows at .9378.
A move above .9411 is needed to ease bearish pressures for a move back to the short-term downtrend at .9422/29.
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