EUR/USD - 1.1307. Euro caught a light bid ahead of Asian open n ratcheted high on short covering to 1.1368 in Europe. Despite intra-day choppy swings in NY morning, price later tumbled in tandem with U.S. stocks to 1.1304.

On the bigger picture, despite euro's LT up move FM 2017 near 14-year low of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb 2018, decline to a near 3-year 1.0637 low (Mar 2020) signals correction has ended. Although euro staged a rally to a near 33-month 1.2349 peaks in early Jan 2021, subsequent selloff to 1.1705 (Mar) signals top is made. Euro's subsequent break of 1.1705 n then weakness to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1187 in late Nov may pressure price twd 1.0964 (80.9% r FM 1.0637). Having said that, euro's rebound to 1.1386 (Dec) signals temp. low is made n last week's rally to 1.1482 may bring stronger retracement twd 1.1525, abv needed to extend gain twd 1.1603 which should hold.

Today, euro's selloff to 1.1304 suggests correction FM Nov's 16-month low at 1.1187 has ended at Fri's 7-week 1.1482 high, a daily close below Jan's low would add credence to this view. Intra-day weakness has retained bearishness but 'bullish convergences' on hourly indicators would keep price abv 1.1223.

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AceTrader

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