The US dollar was slightly up against the Japanese Yen on the day

Good Morning,

- The euro trade slightly down, after climbing to a three-week peak of $1.0927 overnight, on Greece hopes…

- Asian shares edge off 7-year highs before Fed...

- Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on Monday reshuffled his team handling talks with European and IMF lenders, a move widely seen as an effort to relegate embattled Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis to a less active role in negotiations. PM also said the government's top priority as it faces dwindling coffers of cash was to pay wages and pensions, and added that defaulting on debt was not an option either.

- A Greek default does not mean the country has to leave the euro area, economists say. The chances of Greece missing some of its debt payments in the coming weeks are 40 percent, while the probability of an exit from the 19-nation currency bloc stands at 30 percent, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Almost four in five respondents said a default won’t trigger an exit.

-Market expected no change in policy stance from the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting later today, with recent domestic data weaker than forecast and a strong dollar crimping exports. Expectations for an interest rate rise have been pushed further down, with few analysts now expecting a rate hike in June and most predicting a move after US summer.

- The rise in euro helped knock the dollar index to a three-week low of 96.467 yesterday.

- JP Morgan on EUR/USD & Greece: JPM is out with a note outlining 3 possible scenarios for Greece and what do they imply for EUR/USD. "The first path is our base case – the troika is willing to concede on the primary surplus and provide funding in exchange for progress on structural issues, if Greece goes quiet for the rest of 2015, we doubt the euro rises more than two to three cents to about 1.10," JPM clarifes. "The second scenario envisions no resolution this quarter and thus a default on official sector obligations to the IMF, deposit flight from the Greek banking sector, a cap on the ECB’s ELA facility, a liquidity crunch and capital controls. And if the odds of EMU exit remain low given the extreme disorder of a transition to the drachma, the euro’s downside might be 1.02," JPM argues. "The third scenario is the most adverse and would arise if the Greek government responded to an ELA limit and capital controls with policies generally read as precursors to EMU exit. The euro would fall perhaps as much as 10 cents intra-month (so equivalent to its usual drops during existential crises)," JPM adds. "Only a break above 1.1053/98 (keypivots) would seriously start weakening the trend in favor of a broader recovery to 1.1267/79 (int. 38.2 %) if not to 1.1699 and to 1.1811 (int. 38.2 % on higher scales)," JPM projects. "Particularly below 1.1053/98, a straight resumption of the downtrend towards 1.0072 and possibly to projected wave 3 Fib.-targets at 0.9652 and at 0.9298 remains highly likely, which would be confirmed via breaks below 1.0660 and below 1.0521 (last lows)," JPM adds.

- The US dollar was slightly up against the Japanese Yen on the day, with that currency pair seen range bound ahead of a Japanese public holiday tomorrow and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Thursday. The BOJ is widely expected to hold policy steady, but there is a slim possibility that policymakers may opt to ease further if the cut to this fiscal year's inflation forecast is unexpectedly big.

- Japan retail sales plummeted in March. Sales fell by 9.7% from a year earlier, below expectations for a drop of 7.3% and well below the 1.7% decline seen in the year to February.

- Oil extended its losses as ample global supply blunted support from the conflict in Yemen. Weekly U.S. crude inventory data is also expected to show another high, and Saudi Arabia pledged to supply more oil to China if needed.

- Watch today: UK GDP, US store sales & US confidence.

Have a nice Day !