Meanwhile everyone is talking about the major head and shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index that is shown in the chart below. If the dollar continues to fall and breaks through 78.85, there is no major support until 76 but this would most likely require 10-year Treasury yields to fall toward 2.5%. If Janet Yellen ignores the weak reports and talks about when rates could rise, the dollar index will bounce off 79 and move back above 80.
As much as the market may be focused on the dollar and where it is headed, there's still a significant amount of event risk for other major currencies this week. We are still waiting for the results of New Zealand's dairy auction. Tonight we have a speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler on the impact of dairy on New Zealand's economy, NZ employment, Australian retail sales and Australian employment figures. Tomorrow Chinese trade numbers are scheduled for release and on Thursday we have the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement. So as much as the major currency pairs will be driven by the market's appetite for dollars, external data such as this morning's solid U.K. PMI services report will also decide how the pairs trade.
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