Technical Bias: Neutral
Key Takeaways
Euro surged higher against the US dollar this past week, but the 1.2980 level is proving to a tough resistance.
Only a break and close above 1.3000 might call for more gains in the EURUSD pair.
EURUSD support seen at 1.2910 and resistance ahead at 1.3010.
The US dollar corrected lower against the Euro during this past week, but the bias remains bullish unless the Euro bulls manage to clear the 1.30 hurdle in the near term.
Technical Analysis
There was a major trend line on the 4 hour timeframe for the EURUSD pair, which was broken earlier and now acting as a hurdle for the pair. The pair traded as low as 1.2859, and now trying to correct higher. Currently, the pair is struggling to break the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last fall from the 1.3161 high to 1.2859 low, which also coincides with the broken bullish trend line. However, the 4H RSI has managed to close above the 50 mark, which is a positive sign in the near term. So, if the pair manages to clear the mentioned confluence resistance area, then there is a chance of a move towards the 100 simple moving average (SMA) – 4H, which is just sitting above the 61.8% fib retracement level.
On the other hand. If the pair moves lower, then support can be seen around the 1.2910 level. If the Euro sellers get aggressive and break the mentioned level, then a retest of the last low might be on the cards.
Euro Trade Balance Data
Later during the London session, the Euro zone trade balance data will be released by the Eurostat. If the outcome exceeds the market expectation of 15.9B euros, then the Euro might climb further in the near term.
Overall, buying dips might be considered as long as the EURUSD pair is trading above the 1.2910 level.
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