Rates held, AUD slides after RBA says dollar overvalued

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar began Tuesday waiting on the Reserve Bank’s decision on a cash rate which was widely expected to be kept constant. Before the release the Australian market shrugged off positive building approvals and slid close to the US93 cent handle. In welcoming news for the economy in the wake of a waning mining industry in which construction is largely believed to be one of the main areas expected to fill the large void. The RBA made the decision to keep the cash rate on hold, making this the longest period rates have been stable currently sitting at 2.5 per cent a record low. The AUD reacted by slipping under the US93 cent mark as comments from Governor Glen Stevens indicated that the exchange rate remains “above most estimates of its fundamental value”. Overnight the AUD continued to fall underpinned by strong US numbers opening this morning weaker at 0.9276. Today all eyes will be on further Chinese manufacturing numbers along with Australian quarterly GDP figures.

• We expect a range today of 0.9235 – 0.9315

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar spent the majority of Asian trade slipping against the Greenback after it was announced global prices of commodities had fallen further. Given New Zealand is a nation which relies heavily on exports its stubbornly high dollar continues act as a drag on the nations broader growth prospects. Overnight the Kiwi continued to slide dropping to lows of 0.8294 against the US after strong manufacturing numbers strengthened the safe haven currency across the board. This morning the Kiwi opens weaker at 0.8318 while today will be another session of no data locally investors will look offshore mainly China and the US for direction.

• We expect a range today of 0.8295 – 0.8365

Great British Pound:

The British Pound has dropped close to half yearly lows overnight regardless of strong figures from the construction industry. UK construction was shown to be expanding at the fastest rate in over 6 months in August however the GBP was sold off after a poll displayed the likelihood of a Scottish referendum increasing. Adding to the British Pound’s struggles was the strong US numbers overnight and the GBP opens at 1.6468 substantially weaker than Tuesday. The Sterling similarly lost ground against the higher yielding AUD(1.7752) and NZD(1.9808) however not as heavily. This afternoon investors will watch the Services PMI numbers released which are a strong leading indicator of economic health for the UK economy.

• We expect a range today of 1.7710 – 1.7790

Majors:

The Euro followed the rest of the market on Tuesday, struggling to hold its ground amidst strong US numbers overnight. Impressive Spanish unemployment figures which is a surprising change from the struggling economy helped soften the losses however the US’s Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing index surprised to the upside. The factory sector lead the way which helped the index post an impressive 59.0 and the US rally was seen across the market. Tonight the markets will see more movement out of Europe with an array of Services data while the US should be fairly quiet as investors wait on non-farm employment change, employment figures, non-manufacturing index, and the trade balance on Thursday. 

Data releases:

• AUD: AIG Services Index, GDP q/q, RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
• NZD: No Data
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: BRC Shop Price Index y/y, Halifax HPI m/m, Services PMI
• EUR: Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m
• USD: Factory Orders m/m, Total Vehicle Sales, Beige Book