Daily Commentary

Australian Dollar:

Trading ranges have solidified for the Australian dollar when valued against its US Counterpart over the past 24 hours with investors already looking towards Friday’s non-farm payroll report in the United States. With the employment numbers likely to greatly influence the direction of the Greenback, signs of strong growth should weaken the appeal of the Australian dollar. Having drifted between a range of 0.9221 – 0.9262 the Australian dollar opens this morning virtually unchanged in comparison to yesterday’s opening level as it currently swaps hands at a rate of 0.9244. In what’s proving to an extremely busy week for broader currency markets, locally today investors will be gathering further information in regards to the health of Australia’s economy given the planned release of last month’s Trade Balance and Retail Sales numbers.  

• We expect a range today of 0.9200 - 0.9280

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar was sold off aggressively yesterday amid growing speculation that falling dairy commodity prices will weigh substantially on economic growth. In a move which will have a negative impact on New Zealand’s terms of trade the prices at yesterday’s Global Diary Trade Auction notched up there biggest drop in almost 20 months. Acting as the catalyst for the broader move lower the New Zealand dollar was sold from an earlier high of 0.8636 down to an eventual low of 0.8545. 0.8 percent lower this morning the New Zealand dollar currently buys 85.59 US Cents.  

• We expect a range today of 0.8520 – 0.8600 

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound has remained solid overnight assisted by figures which showed Construction growth maintained its momentum last month. Despite the fact Britain had its wettest winter in almost 250 years the signs for the housing market remain positive, a view furthered by the fact property prices have climbed for 14 consecutive months. Having traded between a range of 1.6618 -1.6662 when valued against its US Counterpart overnight the Sterling is marginally stronger this morning at a rate of 1.6623. In other moves the Sterling is unchanged against the Aussie (1.7975) whilst lower against the Kiwi (1.9417).

• We expect a range today of 1.7940 – 1.8010

Majors:

According to the ADP Research Institute companies in the US boosted payrolls by 191 000 in March, providing a solid platform ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. In a separate report overnight data also showed Factory Orders in February rose by 1.6 percent, comfortably exceeding forecast. Whilst boosting optimism surrounding growth within the world’s largest economy the US dollar has been fairly muted over the past 24 hours emphasising just how much importance investors are placing on labour market progress. With the US dollar rallying against the Yen stronger this morning at 103.838, the EUR is lower at 1.3762 ahead of the ECB’s meeting this evening where its expected policy makers will re-iterate there dovish stance maintaining the accommodative monetary policy view.

Data releases

• AUD: RBA Gov Stevens Speaks, Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance
• NZD: No data today
• JPY: No data today  
• GBP: Services PMI, BOE Credit Conditions Survey
• EUR: Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, ECB Press Conference, Minimum Bid Rate
• USD: Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-manufacturing PMI