Aussie rises after strong jobs data

United States Dollar:

The recent soft data from the States continued yesterday with the latest set of numbers undershooting target leading to another sell-off of the greenback. After worse than expected retail sales figures on Tuesday, yesterday’s Empire State manufacturing, capacity utilization and industrial production releases all fell short of market expectations. Cable has pushed up from around 1.4710 to 1.4840 over the past 24 hours as the chances of a June Fed rate rise recede. There is another round of top tier data today from across the Atlantic with building permits, housing starts and unemployment claims all due at 1:30pm. The Philly Fed manufacturing index follows at 3pm with its recent poor run of single digit prints expected to continue. This evening we have FOMC members Dennis Lockhart and Stanley Fischer speaking at separate conferences. There is little data from the UK today, with tomorrow’s wage growth and unemployment data the next releases of note.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.47 to 1.49.

Euro:

Yesterday’s ECB rate decision brought no change in policy with the headline rate remaining at 0.05%. Mario Draghi didn’t say much we don’t already know during the press conference as he re-affirmed the QE programme will continue until the end of September 2016 and “we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.” The press conference got off to a lively start as a 21 year old German protester called Josephine Witt stormed the stage and showered Dragi in confetti and unveiled a t-shirt with the slogan berating the central bank. She was promptly lead away however the incident will have raised security concerns at the bank’s Frankfurt head-quarters. Yesterday saw more bad news for Greece with standard and poor’s downgrading the country’s credit rating to junk status. Greek 10 year bonds are now trading at 11.6% yield as more debt repayments loom for its beleaguered government. EUR/USD currently trades at 1.0640 after briefly trading above 1.07 overnight. GBP/EUR sits at 1.3935.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3830 to 1.4060.

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:

The Aussie got a boost overnight as the unemployment rate, which was expected to hold at 6.3%, unexpectedly dropped to 6.1% with an extra 37.7k added to the workforce in March. AUD/USD currently trades at .7750 after being as low as .7570 yesterday morning. The positive data may lead to the RBA holding rates at 2.25% for longer before cutting to 2% as the markets forecast. There is no more data of note this week from the antipodeans so expect US figures to be the main driver in Aussie and Kiwi movement. GBP/AUD is at 1.9120, NZD/USD is at .7590 and GBP/NZD sits at 1.9515.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9020 to 1.9235.

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9425 to 1.9630.

Data releases for the next 24 hours:

AUD: No data

EUR: No data

GBP: No data

NZD: No data

USD: Building Permits; Unemployment Claims; Housing Starts; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index