Cycle Trading: Miner Change in Expectation

On Monday we discussed hunting for a Miner buying signal.  Since then the Miners have continued lower and have changed our expectations.

The peak on day 42 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.  But since then the Miners have delivered some bearish signals.  First off the Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band.  A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates and end to the daily uptrend and the start of the intermediate cycle decline.  

The Miners delivered a second bearish signal on Thursday by closing below the 50 day MA.  With the Miners being very deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low the rising 50 day MA should have provided support for a daily cycle low to form.  

There are also bearish signals developing on the weekly chart.

The Miners have formed a weekly swing high and has broke below the weekly trend line to signal that the intermediate decline has started.  Therefore once the daily cycle low forms we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated failed daily cycle.  

The odds of a left translated daily cycle formation for the Miners will certainly increase if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle. 

Week 31 remains as the lowest point, placing the dollar late in its timing band to form an ICL. The dollar has confirmed that it began a new daily cycle.  So a weekly swing low and a break above the declining 10 week MA will confirm the new intermediate cycle. A break above 92.69 will form a weekly swing low. And if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle that should send the Miners to seek out their intermediate cycle low.