Ivan Delgado
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3518
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EUR/USD had its largest 1-day decline since Jan 3. What is still understood as a correction, saw sellers fully in control without facing much challenges by fading buyers, a worrying sign even if the pair had been recently displaying overbought reads.
The real test to measure the commitment of sellers will come at 1.3480 - Feb 28 high, 50% fib from latest run up from 1.3260 - , where traders will have to pay close attention to price action. A break below exposes a possible return to the 20-day EMA at 1.34, while a recovery off contention area 1.3480-1.3500 should target and regain the 20-hourly EMA, currently around 1.3555, to resume upward tendencies.
EUR/JPY Current price: 124.73
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The abrupt reversal in EUR/JPY is still far from jeopardizing the uptrend, yet more caution is now required, since the market is susceptible to face an increasing number of sellers as the trend has moved from non-volatile to volatile. The next key support at 123.80 - Jan 31 high - may interfere on the prolonged selling interest off overbought levels. A break lower exposes 122.80-123.00 - Jan 25 high -, while on the upside, 125.50 should be re-taken to set the stage for another try at highs circa 127.00.
USD/JPY Current price: 92.28
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While the fall still has the characteristics of corrective in nature, sellers broke to the downside the 20-hourly EMA, hinting that the correction may be potentially extended to 91.80 - Feb 2 intraday highs - followed by key 91.40/50 support. On the upside, climbing back above the 92.50, where a descending 20-hourly EMA meets with recent broken support is a pre-requisite to strengthen the notion of a re-attempt to new cycle highs.
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0436
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The Australian dollar continues in a consolidation phase, with well defined levels of support and resistance at 1.0350/60 and 1.0480 respectively. Price action today will be governed by the RBA meeting, with a rate hold likely to put pressure on the upper part of the range. A rate cut - not expected - may see sellers emerge with force to drive prices into 1.0350/80 area.
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