Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
The oil market treated the so called ‘Doha accord’ with the contempt that it deserved. I’m not saying that we didnt believe a word of it but its plainly a sheep in a wolf’s clothing. Unless you can stretch your belief that the production freeze is until the end of the year and that the most optimistic demand forecasts are genuine then its all in the Walter Mitty department. The market thinks, quite rightly, that Iran will demand existing quotas which even if they are not achievable right now do not constitute any cutbacks, exactly the opposite. The phrase to note is ‘Provided the other major producers follow suit’, not a chance you whisper…As I suggested a while back ,countries have been producing at record levels just for this moment when they freeze from an acceptable level. Nevertheless the Venezuelan has packed his bags and is on his way to Tehran where he is to hold talks with Iran and Iraqi representatives, I wish him the very best of luck.
With the API and EIA inventory figures delayed a day due to the Federal holiday, the markets eyes turned to the Genscape numbers which added to the gloom as they saw a build at Cushing of over 700/- barrels, tonight is expected to add a short 4m more barrels.
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