Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Just how quiet it was in the market yesterday is reflected in the rare occurrence of a n/c in the Brent price. What might we see coming up in the crude market? Well its the expiry of the May WTI contract today which might show some rolling over and of course we have the API inventory stats tonight, consensus is for another build, this time around 2.4m barrels. I havent mentioned the retail gasoline price in the US lately because it hasn’t moved but signs of a pick-up ahead of the driving season are just showing, last week the price was $2.49 a gallon a rise of 7.7 cents on the week, bear in mind this price is $1.20 less than this time last year.
To keep the market on its toes Ali al Naimi, speaking at a conference in Seoul yesterday said that April Saudi production would remain at or above 10m b/d ensuring that the Opec number would remain over 30m b/d. Also speaking yesterday was Ian Taylor, head of oil trading giant Vitol and his comments are never to be missed. Taking some issue with rival Trafigura, Taylor said that he felt that the oil market has hit its lows and ‘seen a bottom’. With a delay in the Iranian barrels, now unlikely before the last quarter, and consumption showing some signs of a pick-up there is likely to be around 1m b/d increase in demand later this year. He also sees US production starting to slow but like most of us not until the second half of this year at the earliest.
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