- Growth should reach 3.1% in 2015, with a better relative performance in 2H15 and convergence towards its potential rate by 2016. We are standing by our forecast of three months ago. The oil-price windfall will offset a flatter-thanexpected upturn in 2H14. Key here will be fiscal stimulus, the contribution from the external sector and the expected recovery of consumer and business confidence.
- Inflation will converge towards 2.3% in a setting of lower fuel prices, peso appreciation and still weak domestic demand. In this scenario, we expect cuts in the reference rate (MPR) to 2.0-2.5%, although these are unlikely in the short term.
- Public finances with expansive policies that will not last beyond this year. Public spending should grow by 7.7% in 2015 and the fiscal deficit is likely to approach 3% of GDP. Downside risks in effective revenues and in setting structural parameters mean that, even without sustainability risks, the sound fiscal base begins to weaken.
- From abroad, the main risks come from developments in the Chinese economy and the return to a normal monetary situation in the US. Domestically, the main risk is linked to the evolution of the economic agents confidence.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the downside in April, showing a gain of 175K jobs – LIVE
The job creation in the US economy seems to have slowed its pace after Nonfarm Payrolls figures reported an increase of 175K jobs in April, coming in short of consensus for a 243K gain.
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.0750 ahead of US jobs report
EUR/USD clings to modest gains at around 1.0750 after closing the previous two days in positive territory. Investors eagerly await April jobs report from the US, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate readings.
GBP/USD advances to 1.2550, all eyes on US NFP data
The GBP/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.2550 amid the softer US Dollar on Friday. Market participants refrain from taking large positions as focus shifts to April Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Services PMI data from the US.
Gold remains stuck near $2,300 ahead of US NFP
Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction and trades in a tight channel near $2,300. The Fed’s less hawkish outlook drags the USD to a multi-week low and lends support to XAU/USD ahead of the key US NFP data.
XRP edges up after week-long decline as Ripple files letter in reply to SEC’s motion
Ripple filed a letter to the court to support its April 22 motion to strike new expert materials. The legal clash concerns whether SEC accountant Andrea Fox's testimony should be treated as a summary or expert witness.