KBC Market Research Desk
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GDP details show that inventories played big role in Czech and Polish GDP performance in 2015Q1
Watch Czech debate on euro adoption during weekend
The Czech and Polish statistical offices have released GDP details for the first quarter, which showed that domestic demand have continued to firm in both countries. Interestingly, changes in inventories played key role in economic output in the first quarter, which might have some implications for GDP performance in the second quarter. In this respect it is worth noting that while in the Polish case inventories contributed to GDP growth negatively, in the Czech case inventories positive contribution to surprisingly strong growth (4.2% y/y/) was quite heavy (1.6 percentage points).
Today, the regional calendar is empty, so CE markets might turn their attention to core markets. . While in the US, the calendar contains the revision of the Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI and the final Michigan consumer confidence, the eye-catcher related to the Greek saga could be G7 meeting, which will be concluded by Finance Ministers and Central Bankers later today.
Nevertheless, the Czech forex market should monitor the Czech politics during this weekend as Czech President Zeman invited top Czech economic officials to discuss a possibility of the euro adoption in future. It is worth mentioning that while President Zeman, PM Sobotka and possible future CNB’s governor Rusnok are euro supporters, the other important meeting’s attendees – CNB’s governor Singer and Finance Minister Babis are against early introduction of the single currency in the Czech Republic.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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