Weak US Eco Data? Really?

U.S. stocks had to confront the dual headwinds yesterday morning - a weaker China, a bankrupt Puerto Rico and the imploding Greek financial mkts.......and although stocks finished lower Monday - dragged down by broader global concerns they did manage to fight back from the midday rout following what some were blaming on 'weak economic US data'.

Weak economic data? Really? We had - Pers Income - stronger, Pers Spending - in line, PCE Deflators in line, Total Vehicle Sales - Stronger than expected, Construction spending was weak this month BUT was revised up STRONGLY for last month - so net net - for the two months it was stronger than the expectation - so where is the weakness? Read on......

That left us with slightly conflicting ISM Manufacturing reports. We got one from Markit - a leading global financial information provider - that was spot on the expectation and the other report provided by the Institute for Supply Management - one of the largest supply management associations in the world that showed slightly weaker results - is this the 'weaker eco data' that they are all screaming about? Seems a bit ridiculous, no? This one data point was not the reason to hit the 'sell' button at all.

Throw in a technical break in the Apple Chart and you have a reason for some weakness....yesterday Apple broke down thru its long term support at $120.....this causes more angst because of its role in all 3 indices - the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ - and a break in this name has some analysts calling for a broader mkt 'meltdown'.......

The mkt ended up succumbing to the continuing commodity rout and all the chatter that China is driving the global economy...and a weaker China can only mean a weaker world. (or that is what they want us to believe). (Add in the China/Apple connection and you can see what happens....)

Oil once again under pressure - falling 4% yesterday as the oil glut continues.....and again we must ask - do we have a glut because demand is weak or because everyone is pumping oil like there is no tomorrow?

The oil mkt continues to be OVERSUPPLIED - a recent Reuters survey showed us that OPEC has pushed production to new highs, never mind what the US is now producing.....so as a result - buyers aren't willing to pay UP for oil - why should they? All we hear is that we are awash in oil...... And that the suppliers of oil - NEED to move it - so what happens? You've got a sale going on in the oil mkts.....I mean when Bloomies has a sale and cuts prices 10% - you get a small reaction - but what happens when they cut prices 50% - the consumer comes barreling out with guns blazing..... Buyers come out of the woodwork.....and such is the case with oil.....the buyers are there, but they are watching the action of the sellers - Are the sellers willing to continue to produce AND discount the price of oil? If they are - then watch for prices to continue to move lower....if they smarten up and slow down during this supposed 'global economic slowdown' then prices should stabilize. But then you must ask - if the global economy is really slowing - why then are they pushing production to new limits? Do they not see the global slowdown or are they just out to 'kill each other'? It is a tangled web we weave.....

What is happening in the oil mkts is what happens in every mkt......When the sellers get nervous - buyers back off and stocks go down in value, but then at some point - buyers see an opportunity....or 'value'...and guess what? The pressure stops...and this morning - there is a small rally going on in the oil mkt as well as the broader commodity mkts......The Aussie $ is rallying after that country's central bank stopped 'calling it to weaken'.......Russia's Ruble and other emerging mkt currencies respond accordingly and rally causing raw commodity producers to rally. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) up 1.7%, Brent Crude up 1.6% ... Funny how yesterday WTI traded right down to the lows of earlier this year and found support...no matter what the brain trust tells you - it just feels like oil will remain in the $45/$60 price range for the foreseeable future.

All of this noise is causing energy stocks to suffer and that is casting a pall over the broader mkt - but we must ask ourselves - why? We knew this was coming for 6 months - yet the S&P was busy making new highs....so why all of a sudden is weaker oil causing so much angst? Is it weaker oil or is it all the chatter that a weaker China signals a weaker global mkt? And in reality - was China's double digit yr in and yr out growth really sustainable?

This morning US futures are bouncing around between + 3 pts and - 5 pts...currently (7:15 am) we are lower - but holding onto our 50/100 dma at 2085. Like I said yesterday - if we break here then expect a test of the 200 dma at 2068.....considering the other indexes - it is almost inevitable that we test it. I still think we find that buyers will be willing to defend that territory as they look to the future.

Overnight in Asia - mkts there rebounded - China +3% - because the gov't has further 'cracked down on short sellers', 3 brokers announcing that they are suspending the ability for investors/traders to short anything....so what would you expect the mkt to do? Japan -0.14%, Hong Kong flat, China +3.69% and ASX +0.33%.

In Europe - mtks there are lower - Greek stocks are down another 4% - trying to rally back - but what is the investment thesis right now? That negative sentiment is causing some profit taking across the board. FTSE -0.22%, CAC 40 - 0.62%, DAX - 0.28%, EUROSTOXX -0.77%, SPAIN -1.34% and ITALY -1.4%.

Pan Seared Shrimp in Lemon, Garlic and Butter

Now all of this news makes me feel like we are Flash -fried or Seared......So - How about a Pan Seared Shrimp in a Lemon Garlic Butter sauce. Simple to make – kind of like a scampi but not really - you can eat it just like that or you can toss over your favorite pasta or even white rice. Any way you have it – you will not be disappointed. This dish should not take any longer than 20 mins max….if it does – you screwed it up….

For this you will need: Softened butter (room temp mushy) , minced garlic, lemon juice, chopped parsley, s&p, olive oil, sugar and of course the 2 doz cleaned and deveined large shrimp.

In a bowl – using a fork – beat the butter…slowly stir in the minced garlic clove, juice of one lemon, a bit of parsley (for color), and a pinch of salt – now set aside.

Now – in a bowl, toss the shrimp with s&p and 1/2 tsp of sugar. Set aside.

In a sauté pan – heat up the pan and add in a bit of olive oil – now add the shrimp in a single layer – do not stack them. Cook until they turn pink on one side and then flip. Turn off the heat. Let them sit for about 30 seconds. Remove and place on a plate. Repeat with the balance of the shrimp. When you flip the second batch over – and wait 30 seconds – then add back the first batch….Now add in lemon butter garlic - toss well to mix and let stand for another 2 mins….


Buon Appetito.