| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral |
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral
The Aud moved parabolically higher on Friday following the US data, after having looked bid all day long, reaching the 12 month high of 0.7835, where we now have a double top. The momentum indicators are generally all pointing higher although the short term charts are at overbought extremes and caution is warranted at these levels. Given that we are now also up against major Fibo resistance, it may be worth selling at Friday’s closing levels, with a tight SL placed above 0.7850, for a short term trade, but the longer term charts are looking increasingly positive, and if the US data remains soft, we are likely to see higher levels in the days/week’s ahead. Above 0.7835 could then open the way towards 0.7900/75 and to 0.8000+.
Short term support lies at 0.7800 and back below there could see a return to 0.7775, where the Aud will find decent support. The charts certainly look positive although I am loathe to buy the Aud up here, and the RBA certainly will not be comfortable at these levels. It does look though as if 0.8000+ may lie ahead.
Economic data highlights will include:
M: China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment (All June), GDP (Q2), Press Conference
T: New Motor Vehicle Sales, China House Price Index, RBA Minutes
W: WBC Leading Economic Index
T: NAB Business Conditions/Confidence (Q2), Unemployment
F:
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