Daily Forecast - 18 May 2017
AUDUSD high for this week is 7440/45 but above here targets quite strong resistance at 7485/90. A good chance of a high for the day but if we continue higher look for a test of important 100 & 200 day moving average resistance at 7535/45. A break above here however is a buy signal targeting 7595/99.
First support at 7390/85 is only minor but below here targets 7345/40 before a retest of 7330/26 lows & perhaps as far as strong 16 month trend line support at 7299/90. Try longs with stops below 7250. Further losses however test longer term 61.8% Fibonacci support at 7210.
EURUSD stopped 15 pips from the 111.85/90 target but showing no sign of a top to the rally yet. If we beat 111.90 look for quite strong resistance at 112.00/10 in to the end of the week. A good area for profit taking on any longs but shorts are too risky until we see a sell signal.
Below 1.1150 risks a slide to minor support at 1.1125/20 but we expect better support at 1.1095/90. Longs need stops below 1.1070 for a test of the next target & support at 1.1045/40. Try longs with stops below 1.1020.
GBPUSD holding above 1.2930/35 re-targets 1.2965/60 & 1.2985/90 highs. No reason we cannot break higher to 1.3020/30, 1.3055/60, perhaps as far as 1.3085/90.
Back below 1.2900 however risks a retest of minor support at 1.2860/55 (4 pips above this weeks low) but any longs need stops below 1.2840. Further losses then target a buying opportunity at 1.2785/75. Try longs with stops below 1.2740.
USDJPY bounced from 110.51 which happens to be 1 pip above the 61.8% Fibonacci support, taken from the April low of 108.11 to the May high high at 114.36. Minor resistance at 111.23/25 & 111.40/44. If we continue higher look for the strongest resistance for today at 112.10/20. Try shorts with stops above 112.50.
At this stage further moves to the downside are likely with support at 110.55/50 unlikely to be strong enough to trigger a significant bounce. Look for 109.90 & important 200 day moving average & 6 month trend line support at 109.70/60. This is the best chance of a low for the day. We also have a gap to fill at 109.48 so longs need stops below 109.30.
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