Here are the 3 reasons for the recovery in risk appetite this morning.
- Emerging Market Central Banks are Getting Desperate
- China Credit Trust Avoids Default
- Stronger IFO from Germany
After devaluing their currency last week, Argentina took further measures on Friday to prevent outflows. The government eased capital controls by allowing Argentines to buy dollars as long as they earn a minimum of 7,200 pesos per month but restricting their purchases to $2,000 per month. They also lowered the tax on dollar purchases from 35% to 20%. Thee announcement was made a few days ago but today is the first day that it comes into effect. Unfortunately the impact on the currency has been nominal because many investors fear these steps will backfire because it makes imports more expensive and raises the risk of inflation in a country that is already dealing with significant price pressures. Prices of refrigerators have already gone up as much as 30% since the devaluation. Turkey said this morning they will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow and a big announcement is expected to follow.
Aside from the desperate actions of emerging market central banks whose currencies and reserves are falling, risk appetite also recovered after China Credit Trust announced that they secured funding that would avoid the near term risk of default. Stronger business confidence in Germany also eased concerns about the outlook for the Eurozone but the initial gains in the euro have since evaporated.
According to noted Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath, the sell-off in emerging market won't stop the Ben Bernanke will from tapering because the impact on U.S. assets have been small. He argues that stocks are falling from high levels and interest rates are under control. However if the Fed decides to provide more support to the U.S. and the global economy by keeping asset purchases unchanged this month, we could see a relief rally in emerging and developed currencies.
U.S. new home sales are schedule for release later this morning and the impact on the dollar is expected to be small.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.