Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Gold has been pressured recently by USD gains and rising real yields. This has resulted in gold pulling back recently from recent highs and moving back towards key daily support levels.
Many analysts are expecting the case to remain bullish for gold. With US rates expected to fall, STIR markets seeing two rate cuts this year, and yields also expected to fall the dip seems attractive fundamentally. Furthermore, there is an interesting seasonal pattern to be aware of for gold.
Over the last 15 years, between July 24 and Sep 3, gold has gained 80% of the time for an average return of 3.30%. July and August tend to be strong months for gold as the Indian wedding season tends to see an uptick in physical demand. So, does this mean any deeper dips in gold are well worth looking out for?
Major trade risks: The biggest risk here is if the path of US rates turns more aggressive and that should support the USD and real yields higher. Also, any further USD bids can weaken gold. These would be natural headwinds for gold.
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