WTI Forecast Poll


How to Read the Forecast Poll charts

Overview

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.


Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.


Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.


price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.


smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.


min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.


2020 FORECAST FOR WTI

In our WTI Price Forecast 2020, our analyst believes that crude oil price is set to rise initially before correcting in the latter part of 2020. Read more details about the forecast.

We could see an improved economic outlook, IMO 2020 and shrinking supply to offer support. WTI price will likely maintain 2019’s range, with bias leaning to the upside.

As per our expert, Dhwani Mehta, "stepping into 2020, the oil industry is on a verge of witnessing a massive shake-up, in the face of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations –IMO 2020– effective from January. Further, the global economic slowdown appears to have bottomed out while oil demand growth outlook has turned upbeat, calling for higher prices next year. The upside potential in oil prices, however, may be limited by a likely US-China trade re-escalation and dwindling Chinese oil demand."