WTI Forecast Poll


How to Read the Forecast Poll charts

Overview

This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.


Bias

Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.


Averages

By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.

shifted price

In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.


price change

This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.


smooth average

This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.


min/max

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.


2021 FORECAST FOR WTI

In the WTI Price Forecast 2021, our external expert stands that, judging by where prices stand as 2020 ends, it’s safe to say the production cuts have been successful, with Brent crude back above $50 a barrel and WTI not far behind. Read more details about the forecast.

However, that’s still some distance from the $60 plus levels that both benchmarks were trading at the beginning of the year 2020 so there is scope for additional gains in 2021 should the global economy recover as predicted.

Our dedicated contributor, Raffi Boyadjian, believes that "the oil industry is not out of the woods yet as analysts have wound back some of their more optimistic forecasts for demand after Europe was plunged into a second lockdown in November. The strict virus curbs could last until next spring, holding back fuel consumption as Europeans are forced to spend more time at home. But restrictions have also recently tightened in other parts of the world, including Australia and the United States, risking a further delay in demand rising to pre-pandemic levels. The uncertainty about the outlook is not fully reflected in prices, however, as they’ve already more than recovered the losses incurred in March and April. Hopes that the vaccine rollouts will bring about a swift end to the pandemic are propelling the latest upswing in prices. "