OPEC+ stuck to their plan to cautiously raise output as expected but stopped short of discussing what comes next after July. Considering demand is projected to grow at a fast clip, the market is set to face a considerable deficit during the next six months under these assumptions. The group's cautious return to market, Iranian production notwithstanding, has created the set-up for $70+/bbl crude, according to Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities.
OPEC+ keeps production increases on plan for now
“OPEC+ kept to its widely expected plan to increase production in July, as the Saudi led cartel sounded a bullish note on the global oil demand recovery. The producer group agreed to keep to its existing plan of raising oil production quotas by 350,00 bpd in June and 440,000 bpd in July.”
“Given demand is projected to grow by over 5 million b/d in H2-2021, there will likely be a considerable deficit during the next six months. Since the OPEC+ planned supply will not keep up with demand growth, it could be argued that the producer group will likely increase production once these risks are mitigated, as we believe they want to regain their market share and do not want a price spike which would incentivize US shale producers to grow output or destroy demand. But any supply increases won't be announced until the Iran production issue has clarity.”
“We expect that the global oil market will remain in a sizable deficit over the near term, which is price supportive. As such it is reasonable to say that WTI will likely push through the low $70s/bbl, but won't surge much higher on a sustained basis, as currently sequestered OPEC+ capacity gets redeployed and Iran increases output.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to near 1.0850, further support at nine-day EMA
EUR/USD continues to lose ground, trading around 1.0860 during the Asian hours on Friday. From a technical perspective on a daily chart analysis indicates a sideways trend for the pair as it continues to lie within the symmetrical triangle.
GBP/USD posts modest gains above 1.2650, focus on the Fedspeak
The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.2670 during the Asian session on Friday. Meanwhile, the USD Index recovers some lost ground after retracing to multi-week lows near 104.00 in the previous session.
Gold price gains ground, with Fed speakers in focus
The Gold price trades with a positive bias on Friday. The bullish move of precious metals in the previous sessions was bolstered by the softer-than-expected US inflation data in April, which triggered hope for rate cuts from the US Fed.
LINK price jumps 10% as Chainlink races toward tokenization of funds
Chainlink price has remained range-bound for a while, stuck between the $16.00 roadblock to the upside and $13.08 to the downside. However, in light of recent revelations, the token may have further upside potential.
Fed speak tempers rate cut expectations
The biggest takeaway into Friday is the latest round of Fed speak. These Fed officials reiterated their stance rates should be kept restrictive for a longer period of time until there is more clear evidence inflation is heading back towards the 2% target.