WTI Price Forecast: Bulls test $60 as momentum improves
- WTI rebounds toward $60 as Tengiz outages revive supply concerns.
- Technicals improve as momentum indicators turn supportive, easing recent bearish pressure.
- Bulls look for a daily close above $60 and $62.19 to confirm a broader recovery.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil extends its rebound on Tuesday, drawing modest support from renewed supply concerns after production outages disrupted flows from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $60.33, up about 1.6% on the day.
At the same time, escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union are weighing heavily on the US Dollar (USD), making dollar-denominated Crude cheaper for overseas buyers and adding another layer of support to prices.
Beyond the fundamental backdrop, the technical picture is also turning more supportive as momentum improves after the recent weakness.
On the daily chart, WTI is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $59.84, after stabilizing above the 50-day SMA, a sign that buyers are regaining near-term control. However, the fact that the 50-day SMA continues to trend below the 100-day SMA keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside.
A daily close above the $60.00 psychological level and the 100-day SMA would strengthen the ongoing recovery and confirm improving upside momentum. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $62.19, the January 14 high.
A clear break above this level would mark a shift in the prevailing downward structure, opening the door for a deeper recovery toward the $64.00–$66.00 zone, a previous supply area.
On the downside, the 50-day SMA provides immediate support, followed by the January 8 low at $55.90.
Momentum indicators are tilting modestly bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen toward 59, reflecting improving bullish momentum without flashing overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains if buying interest persists.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, with the MACD line holding above its signal line and the histogram continuing to print positive bars.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
