|

WTI Price Analysis: Chinese demand concerns pushes WTI's price down

  • WTI fell to a low below $80.00 and then jumped back above $82.00, clearing most of its daily losses.
  • China reported weak Trade Balance data, with Exports and Imports coming in weaker than expected in July.
  • A stronger USD also limits the WTI’s advance, but losses are limited by Saudi’s production cut prospects.

On Tuesday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw more than 1% losses, mainly driven by soft Trade Balance reported by China in July. A recovering USD also contributed to the decline, with the DXY comfortably sitting above 102.50. That being said, the hope for black gold’s prices is the prospects of further production cuts by the Saudis and a tighter global supply.

Investors assess China’s data

During the early Asian session on Tuesday, China reported weak Trade Balance data. Exports fell by 14.5% YoY in July, higher than the 12.5% expected, while Imports declined by 6.9%, also above the expectations of the 2.5% decrease expected. It's important to mention that China is the biggest Oil importer, so a weaker local economy lowers energy demand pushing the WTI downwards.

On the other hand, TD Securities analysts indicate that supply risks are rising to their highest level since early 2022, with the start of the war in Ukraine. In addition, they add, the voluntary production cuts by the Saudis and Russia’s export curtailment should contribute to a tighter global supply and push the price northwards.

WTI levels to watch

Observing the daily chart, it is apparent that WTI is currently experiencing a neutral to bearish trend as the bulls struggle to maintain their momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a weakening bullish trend with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out decreasing green bars. Plus, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMAs), suggesting that the bulls are firmly in control of the bigger picture.

Support levels:$80.00, $78.75 (20-day SMA), $78.00.  

Resistance levels: $82.50, $83.00, $84.00.

WTI Daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price81.89
Today Daily Change-0.30
Today Daily Change %-0.37
Today daily open82.19
 
Trends
Daily SMA2078.31
Daily SMA5073.68
Daily SMA10074.21
Daily SMA20076.4
 
Levels
Previous Daily High82.91
Previous Daily Low81.25
Previous Weekly High82.88
Previous Weekly Low78.49
Previous Monthly High81.78
Previous Monthly Low69.77
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%81.88
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%82.27
Daily Pivot Point S181.32
Daily Pivot Point S280.45
Daily Pivot Point S379.66
Daily Pivot Point R182.98
Daily Pivot Point R283.78
Daily Pivot Point R384.64

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

More from Patricio Martín
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.