WTI holds above $75.40, focus on Sino-US relations

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around the $75.40 mark so far this Thursday. WTI price edges lower from the Crude Oil Stocks Change data, and market participants will keep an eye on Sino-US relations for fresh impetus.

The crude oil inventories figure indicated lower demand for crude oil and dragged WTI price lower following the release of the data. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change in the week ending July 14 fell by 708,000 barrels, compared to expectations of a drop of 2.44 million barrels and a gain of 5.946 million barrels the previous week.

That said, the renewed trade war tensions between the US-China might exert pressure on WTI. On Thursday, China's Ambassador Xie Feng criticized the US's consideration of foreign investment and AI chip restrictions. He added that China would retaliate if the US imposed more curbs on its chip sector in Beijing. 

On the other hand, market players anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle and will maintain interest rates following the widely expected 25 basis points (bps) in the July meeting. A more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the downside for WTI. It’s worth noting that higher interest rates raise borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and diminish oil demand.

Meanwhile, Russia is set to cut its oil exports by 2.1 million metric tonnes in the third quarter, in line with planned voluntary export cuts of 500,000 barrels per day in August.

Moving on, oil traders will closely monitor the headlines surrounding the US-China relationship as well as the Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Next week, market participants will shift focus to the US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Flash Services PMI. The data could significantly impact the USD-denominated WTI price.