WTI: Higher than expected EIA data, receding geopolitical tension cap earlier recovery


  • WTI slips from weekly high amid reports of the Syrian ceasefire, silence from Iran and downbeat oil stocks.
  • Weaker USD, upbeat trade news helped the energy benchmark the previous day.

Despite benefiting from trade-positive headlines and the weaker greenback, WTI fails to hold on to recovery gains while nearing $54.00 during early Friday in Asia.

The black gold could have taken clues from the recent rise in the weekly United States (US) Crude Oil Stocks report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the period ended on October 11. The US inventories rallied more than 2.878M anticipated and 2.927M prior to 9.281M.

Also adding to the downside pressure could be a recent ceasefire by the Turkish leader in the nation’s fight against Kurdish fighters in Syria. Further, a lack of negative news concerning the US-Iran tension and the latest statement from the White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow, which dims the US-China trade optimism, might also be considered favoring sellers.

The oil benchmark earlier benefited from the US Dollar (USD) weakness, mainly due to downbeat data increasing odds of further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, and upbeat comments from China’s Commerce Ministry.

Investors will now keep an eye over China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for fresh impulse while trade headlines could keep directing prices.

Technical Analysis

FXStreet Analyst Ross J Burland holds a bearish view while spotting price trading below 50 and 21-DMA:

"While below the 50 and 21-day moving averages, WTI remains directly offered and bears seek a close below the 50 handle which will bring the prospect of a run down to the Nov 2018 lows at 49.39 again. This area protects the 46.90 level ahead of the 18th Dec lows down at 45.77 ahead of the Dec double bottom lows below 42.50. However, should the bulls break through trendline resistance and exceed the 21 and 50 DMAs, then the 56 handle ahead of the 200 DMA come back into play guarding the 57 handle."

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